With winter fast approaching, Wisconsin farmers are preparing for a season of unpredictable weather, following a warmer-than-usual winter last year. Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin’s State Climatologist, shares key insights into what the winter outlook holds.
“We’re not expecting the extreme warmth of last winter,” Vavrus explains. “In fact, NOAA’s National Weather Service is forecasting an equal chance of a warm, cold, or near-normal winter. This doesn’t give us much to work with.”
However, Vavrus notes that the Great Lakes region, including Wisconsin, could see a wetter-than-normal winter. “The eastern half of Wisconsin, in particular, is likely to experience above-average precipitation,” he says. This could mean more snow, rain, or a combination of both, depending on how temperatures unfold.
The timing of this precipitation could be crucial for farmers. “If the soils freeze early, any rain or snow will run off. But if the freeze is delayed, moisture can infiltrate the soil, which is beneficial after this year’s drought,” Vavrus adds. Currently, soils are warmer than usual, allowing rainfall and early snow to absorb more effectively.
Vavrus also cautions that long-range forecasts are inherently uncertain. “These outlooks are based on trends and probabilities, not certainties,” he says. For instance, the occurrence of El Niño or La Niña can influence winter weather patterns. While El Niño typically brings milder winters, La Niña often results in wetter conditions. However, Vavrus emphasizes that the upcoming La Niña event may not be as strong, making its impact less predictable.
Farmers are advised to prepare for a range of possibilities. “The best strategy is to be ready for anything,” Vavrus suggests. “If we experience a dry soil condition early in the season, it could last into spring. But if conditions remain wet, farmers may find themselves in better shape heading into the growing season.”
