Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Beef
USDA estimated last week’s harvest at 611,000 head, 1,000 fewer than the previous week and 16,000 fewer than a year ago. That makes four consecutive weeks of harvest totals above 600,000. Dressed weights have hit a record high, averaging 948 pounds according to the latest data— that is 30 pounds heavier than last year and 36 pounds heavier than the five-year average. Fall typically sees an increase in carcass weights, so we may see even heavier weights in the coming weeks. The heavier carcasses have led to lower prices for beef 50s, the trim associated with fed cattle. Lean trim is still trading at a premium due to smaller supplies of non-fed cattle. It is difficult to get a handle on current beef supplies, let alone predicting cattle numbers for the next 24 months. There are 100,000 more cattle in feedlots than this time last year, making feeder cattle supply outside of feedlots 850,000 head lower than a year ago according to Drover’s 2024 State of the Beef Industry Report. The report cites CattleFax data that estimates the 2024 calf crop to be 700,000 fewer than 2023. CattleFax expects a continued tightening of cattle supplies through 2026. Cash cattle were $1 higher last week. Early negotiated trade this week was steady to $1 higher, but sales stalled by midweek with most trade expected to happen on Friday. The Choice carcass cutout broke the $300 level last week to average $300.09, an increase of $1.10. Wholesale prices were higher at the beginning of this week with the cutout value at $308.18 on Wednesday. Fall and early winter typically bring stronger demand for middle meats. Higher retail prices for beef could impact holiday demand, but the approaching season may prove bullish for cattle prices.
High Choice and Prime Beef
High Choice and Prime beef breed steers sold stronger, bringing $181-$191/cwt with some packages reported from $189 to $194/cwt. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $164 to $181/cwt. Holstein steers were steady and strong. High grading steers brought $163-$175 with some to $178/cwt. Lower grading steers brought $130-$163. Silage fed, under finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $75-$130/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were steady to $1 higher, bringing $138-$181 with a few to $187/cwt. Cows were steady to $1 higher. Most of the cows brought $91-$117/cwt with some to the low $130s/cwt. Lower yielding cows brought $75-$89. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $75/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were steady to higher, selling from $200 to$400/head with some heavier, well-managed calves selling to $700/head. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $100-400/head with some selling higher. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady, selling to $950/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $15.