Tight Milk Supply Pressures Midwest Markets

Milk production in Wisconsin has experienced a slight decline, according to the most recent Milk Production Report, reflecting broader trends across the Midwest. Matt Tranel, a broker analyst with Ever.Ag, highlighted that several factors contributed to this decrease, including heatwaves and lingering effects from avian flu outbreaks.

“There’s definitely been a reported tightness throughout the Midwest during July and August,” Tranel explained. “Heat wasn’t just confined to the Upper Midwest; states like Idaho, California, and Texas also faced significant challenges, which contributed to the overall reduction in milk production.”

The latest report revealed a decrease in milk production per cow in Wisconsin and across the nation. This has added to the already existing tightness in the market, with Tranel noting that cow numbers were also down. “Wisconsin saw a 1.3% drop in production, which aligns with the broader trend in the Midwest. This has led to a noticeable tightness in the Midwest spot milk market,” he said.

Tranel pointed out that while summer typically sees a reduction in milk production, the industry is entering a period of heightened demand as the budget-setting season for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other major events begins. “Lesser milk during this time doesn’t necessarily impact demand, but it does influence market dynamics,” he added.

However, Tranel remains cautiously optimistic, noting that milk production is beginning to rebound. “We were short on milk over the past couple of months, but if major players regain production, we could see a shift in market dynamics,” Tranel said.