The following article has been prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports. Edited by Mid-West Farm Report.
Cash cattle were steady to higher last week. There are reports that some packers have been reducing their harvest schedules and even forgoing harvest operations on Fridays.
Last week’s estimated harvest of 563,000 head was just 5,000 fewer than the previous week, but 26,000 fewer than a year ago. Heavier cattle and carcass weights helped offset the impact of fewer cattle through 2024 and the first quarter of 2025; however, beef production during the second quarter was below last year’s and is now 3.3 percent lower than 2024 year-to-date. It is unlikely production will increase through the rest of the year.
Deferred futures contracts are at a discount to the nearbys, as there is speculation that a plant may close before the end of the year. There is no indication which plant may close, nor whether a closure would be temporary or long-term. More capacity than cattle and a lack of packer profitability have led to the speculation.
Wholesale prices continue to trend lower, with last week’s Choice beef cutout averaging $374.89. Retail prices were higher in June. The all-beef average retail price was $8.63/pound, making it 23 cents higher than in May. The Choice beef price was $9.62/pound, 8.6% higher than in January.
July’s Cattle on Feed will include a breakdown of heifers versus steers in feedlots. Anticipation is high for the July Cattle Inventory report. Information will include the cow inventory — both beef and dairy, as well as the number of heifers being kept for replacement. This will indicate whether any widespread herd rebuilding has begun.
