The U.S. dairy industry is facing mixed signals heading into 2025, with strong production but softer markets for some products. Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, says the situation is complicated, but not alarming.
“We’ve got a little bit of an oversupply or demand lull, or a combination of both,” Doud says, pointing to unusually low butter prices after European production surged this fall.
Still, he believes the market is going to come around as the new year approaches. Doud notes that export opportunities are expanding, especially in Southeast Asia, where U.S. dairy will soon compete tariff-free alongside New Zealand and Australia. He says those markets together now equal the size of China, where demand has softened.
On the policy front, Doud says the industry is working through inflation-related challenges in the Dairy Margin Coverage program and keeping a close eye on upcoming negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
“The long-term trajectory of this is what you’re after,” he says, emphasizing the importance of stable trade relationships.
Despite near-term uncertainty, Doud remains optimistic that global demand, new trade deals, and ongoing adjustments in herd management will help stabilize prices for producers.
