Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Overall Trends To Watch
■ The 2026 seasonal slump in beef prices typical for this time of year can best be described as a free fall. Last week’s 5 Area negotiated average price for beef breed steers was $238.59/cwt, $24.18 lower than the high seen the week ending May 15. Trade this week Wednesday saw steers bringing $230-$231/cwt. This time last year, the negotiated steer price averaged $231.50. Wholesale prices also dropped significantly. Last week’s average Choice carcass cutout value was $371.21, making it $12.18 lower than the previous week. The cutout value averaged $369.37 this week last year. This price dynamic has moved feedlot bottom lines into the red, based mostly on the price paid for the feeder cattle now reaching market weight. Rising input costs, namely feed and fuel, have compounded the problem. A Cattle on Feed report will be issued Friday afternoon, and it is expected to confirm thoughts that a relatively large number of the cattle inventory have been on feed for 150 days or more. This would mean that there is not a large number of cattle on feed overall, but a large percentage are nearing market readiness. Last week’s harvest estimate of 525,000 head was 4,000 fewer than the previous week and 42,000 fewer than a year ago. Beef harvest is 8.4% lower than last year year-to-date, but the gap is expected to narrow through the rest of this year. Opinions vary as to what Friday’s semi-annual cattle inventory report will show. Analysts will be looking closely at the number of beef heifers kept for replacement. Data showing widespread herd expansion is unlikely, but it is expected that the kept-for-replacement number will be higher than last year. #
Pork Trends
■ The pork cutout value had been struggling to break through the $100 level of resistance this year. Last week the cutout averaged $102.21 and was $103.50 Wednesday of this week. The base carcass cash price was $1.81 higher last week to average $93.16. Lean hog futures contracts have been trading higher as well. Export sales were strong for the July 10-16 timeframe. Net sales of 28,800 metric tons were up 33% from the previous week and 12% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and Canada. Live and carcass weights have been decreasing. An estimated 2.310 million hogs were harvested last week with an average weight of 288 pounds and carcasses averaging 215 pounds. The total was 54,000 head fewer than the previous week and 23,000 fewer than last year. #
Lamb Trends
■ Cash lamb prices were weak last week with market ewes selling strong. An estimated 33,000 sheep and lambs were harvested last week, 1,000 more than the week prior and 3,000 fewer than last year. The lamb cutout value was $671.84 last Friday, $13.34 higher than the previous week. Sheep and lamb harvest is down 3.8% year-over-year with lamb and mutton production 8.6% lower. #
Cattle Trends
■ Fed cattle prices were lower this week at Wisconsin and surrounding state auction markets and stockyards. Top quality beef steers and heifers brought $227-$238/cwt. Some high-grading, high-yielding steers with an overnight stand sold to $240/cwt. Mixed Choice and Select steers and heifers ranged from $205-$227/cwt. High-grading Holstein steers were steady to weak, bringing $205-$225/cwt. Lower-grading steers brought $175-$205/cwt. Silage fed and under finished steers brought $95-$175/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were lower, bringing $210-$235 with some higher. Cows were mixed, bringing $120-$157/cwt with some still selling into the $170s. Lower-yielding cows brought $60-$120/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $60/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were steady to higher, selling from $800-$1,800/head. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $200-$800/head. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady from $800 to $1,900/head. Light and lower-quality calves sold up to $60. Fed lambs over 100 pounds brought $200-$250/cwt with light lambs selling from $240-$295/cwt. #
