In his live segment with Mid-West Farm Report, market advisor John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing discusses market reactions to agricultural headlines and notes the seasonal outlook for grain markets.
America’s Dairyland saw its first case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cattle in Dodge County. While the news coincided with milk prices rotating off of recent highs, Heinberg says it’s too early to attribute the turn to the bird flu announcement.
He provides context on the outbreak:
- Cases have been relatively few in recent months, with most previous detections occurring in California, including one around Thanksgiving.
- Milk products remain safe due to pasteurization, which neutralizes disease-causing pathogens. Furthermore, milk from affected herds is quarantined and does not enter the commercial system.
- The most significant impact is the lack of production from the infected dairy animals.
Heinberg notes that this is a time of year when isolated cases often appear, but overall, avian influenza in livestock seems to be more “under control” compared to the previous year, which heavily impacted the turkey and poultry industries.
Grain
Turning to grain, Heinberg indicates that farmers are entering a seasonal window that often brings price support.
As the year closes, trading volume typically thins due to traders “cleaning up positions,” often leading to buying strength, particularly in the corn market. Last year, a market bottom was established around Dec. 19 in both corn and soybeans, preceding rallies that continued into the new year after a supportive January report.
The soybean market has been under pressure but may have found a recent bottom, supported by a turnaround in soybean meal prices.
Corn demand is showing signs of picking up, with recent export demand noted for three consecutive sessions, pushing the March contract around the $4.40 area.
Heinberg advises that with heavy corn supplies and lingering demand concerns for soybeans, any seasonal rallies should be viewed as an opportunity for growers to execute sales or implement protective measures before the market fully incorporates information about the South American crop.
