Holiday Season Begins to Pressure Beef MarketsClose,Up,Of,Stud,Beef,Bulls,,Cows,And,Calves,Grazing

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Close,Up,Of,Stud,Beef,Bulls,,Cows,And,Calves,Grazing

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The following article was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.

Cattle

The holiday season will begin impacting beef markets starting this week. Packers plan to ramp up harvest ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving-shortened work schedule.

Normally, holiday demand would build and carry through to the end of the year. There are concerns that consumer spending may be scaled back this year, however. Domestic demand will be key for current cattle prices to hold.

The Choice beef cutout has continued to drop. Last week’s average was $375.06, making it $2.84 lower than the previous week. The value ended last week at $370.73. Cash cattle ended the week lower with expectation for this week’s trade to be steady to lower, but a lower trend prevailed. The estimated harvest last week was 576,000 head, which was 21,000 more than the week prior and 33,000 fewer than last year.

With the federal government reopening, we will again have the breakdown of steers, heifers, cows, and bulls by head. The shutdown ended with government funding extended to January 30 next year, but provisions included USDA to be fully funded through the federal fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2026.

One of the first major reports released after reopening was the USDA’s November World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Beef production expectations were lowered for the remainder of 2025 based on lower steer and heifer harvest and lower live weights, but offset somewhat by expected higher cow and bull harvest. Production for 2026 was lowered based on reduced steer and heifer harvest through the first half of the year. The average price for fed steers in 2026 was forecast to be $246/cwt.

Cattle Prices

Top quality steers and heifers were $3-$5 lower this week, bringing $215-$225/cwt. Mixed Choice and Select steers and heifers ranged from $209-215/cwt. High grading Holstein steers were $2-$3 lower at $187-$212/cwt, with some higher. Lower grading steers brought $168-$186/cwt. Silage fed, under finished, or heavy dairy breed steers brought $90-$168/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were lower, bringing $179-$225.

Cows were mixed. Most cows brought $116-$140/cwt with a few selling into the mid $150s. Lower yielding cows brought $60-115/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $60/cwt.

Dairy breed bull calves were steady to higher, selling from $600-$1,150/head with some to $1,400. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $300-$750/head. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady from $700 to $1,650/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60.

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