Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Hogs
It is not very often that a USDA report and pre-report estimates align as closely as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The breeding herd on September 1 was 97.8% compared to last year, and 1% larger than the previous quarter. Market hog inventory was .07% higher than last September and 2% higher than the previous quarter. Inventory in all weight groups was higher than in 2023, but the largest increases were in the 120-179 pounds and 180 pounds and over categories. Hog supplies are front loaded which will be a challenge to the remainder of the year. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.72 for the June-August period, compared to 11.61 last year. Productivity continues to increase but is showing signs of slowing after a year of consistent increases.
Cash hogs were 40 cents lower last week, with the pork cutout value unchanged, averaging $94.52. Lean Hog futures contracts were higher this week even given the news of larger supplies ahead. Last week’s estimated harvest of 2.569 million was 63,000 more than the previous week and 48,000 fewer than the same week last year. The average live weight last week was 3 pounds higher than a year ago. Pork in cold storage on August 31 was 3.3% less than this time last year.
Lambs
Last week’s sheep and lamb harvest totaled 36,000 head, 1,000 more than the previous week and equal to the same week last year. Cash lambs were weak to $20/cwt lower. Like last week, the most pressure was on heavy lambs. Negotiated fed lamb prices have dipped below last year’s level. The carcass cutout was $476.85 last Friday, making it $6.07 higher than the week before. The carcass value was $464.44 this time last year. The USDA Cold Storage report indicated that lamb and mutton in storage on August 31 was 3% more than the end of July and 2% less than last August. Shorn lambs brought $125-$145/cwt with a few selling to $170/cwt.
