‘Hogging’ The Middle Ground — Not Bullish, Not Bearish

The following report was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.

The next quarterly DATCP Bureau of Meat and Poultry Businesses Office Hours is Jan. 22 from 7-8 a.m. Bureau Director Paul Humphrey will provide an update. Jeff Swenson will speak about the 2026 round of Meat Processor Infrastructure Grants. DATCP’s Grace Puc will provide a “Grant Writing 101” presentation.

No one is saying that December’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was bullish, although some have gone so far as to say it was “not bearish.” All hogs and pigs on Dec. 1 were up 1 percent from the year before. The breeding herd, at 5.95 million, was 1 percent lower than a year ago, making it the smallest since 2014. Market hog inventory was 1 percent higher at 69.6 million.

Farrowing intentions from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 are 2 percent higher than last year. This will be difficult to achieve with 1 percent fewer sows. The average pigs saved per litter for the September-November period was 11.93 compared to 11.92 last year. It appears that the number of pigs saved per litter is beginning to level off after months of steady increase.

The prospect for an increase in pork production comes at a time when demand seems to be strengthening. But wholesale pork prices were lower last week, with the cutout posted at $94.60 last week, a decrease of $2.02.

The estimated harvest was 2.228 million last week, which was 250,000 more than Christmas week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Forty-pound feeder pigs averaged $96.08 last week, with 10–12-pound pigs averaging $75.27.

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