The following article was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Seasonal demand and market momentum are beginning to shape hog supplies as harvest numbers continue to climb. Last week’s harvest was estimated to be the largest of the year so far at 2.716 million, which was 88,000 more hogs and pigs the previous week and 84,000 more than last year. The increase was expected, but the numbers are rising quicker than anticipated.
The November WASDE report lowered its forecast for 2025 pork production based on lower harvest numbers more than offsetting heavier dressed weights. 2026 production is also projected to be lower on lower hog supplies, with reduced farrowing intentions for late 2025 and early 2026 indicated in the latest Hogs and Pigs report. The report lowered the average price expected for the fourth quarter of 2025 but raised the 2026 live price forecast to $67/cwt.
The pork cutout value is experiencing pressure. Last week’s average of $100.58 was 82 cents less than the week prior but had fallen to $95.39 Monday. Forty-pound feeder pigs averaged $82.17/head last week with 10–12-pound pigs averaging $62.36/head.
