Dairy producers across the Upper Midwest are up against a heat wave that’s hammering milk output, Ever.Ag Dairy Analyst Cody Koster tells Mid-West Farm Report.
“Two weeks ago, people were calling in saying they were down 10–15 pounds [of milk] per cow,” he says. “In the last three days… they were down 20–23 pounds.”
With temperatures in the low 90s through the Independence Day weekend, and little relief at night, cows are struggling to recover. Koster says producers have fans running 24/7, but the persistent hot and muggy conditions result in low feed intake.
The Upper Midwest is taking the brunt of the heat stress and will likely continue to do so. The West Coast has enjoyed a milder start to summer, and even with triple-digit temperatures in the forecast for California, Koster says, “they’re built for it.”
“They’ve got the infrastructure out there for it… sprinklers, misters,” he explains.
Despite the production hit, U.S. cheese remains among the cheapest in the world.
“We are still 50 cents lesser than the rest of the world,” Koster notes, adding that the price gap continues to drive exports, especially when U.S. block cheese dips to $1.60 per pound.
Looking ahead, Koster expects prices to stay “rangebound” between $1.60 and $1.95.
“Every time we get up there… we have blatantly come off the very following day. Until something in the world changes, I think we’re just rangebound there,” Koster says.
While $1.95 is nothing to scoff at, he says, producers should consider hedging when prices approach the upper end of that range.
