Farmers are facing a bumpy road ahead as trade policies and global economic shifts create uncertainty in agriculture. Dan Basse, President of AgResource Company, recently shared his insights on these challenges and what they mean for the industry.
“We’re now trading every headline,” Basse explained. “Many experienced traders are stepping away because forecasting decisions has become difficult.”
One of Basse’s primary concerns is U.S. trade policy. “Agricultural markets are driven by either policy or weather,” he noted. “Right now, policy is our biggest concern.”
He highlighted the potential for growth in biofuels like E15 and sustainable aviation fuel. “If sustainable aviation fuel reaches 5% by 2030, that could mean 12 million more corn acres,” Basse said. However, he stressed that the U.S. lacks enough ethanol facilities to meet this demand. “We need investment in new facilities to achieve those goals,” he added.
China’s economic slowdown also concerns Basse. “China’s food consumption is stabilizing, and Brazil is now their top supplier for corn and soybeans,” he said. “Where American farmers once relied on that demand, they must now find new markets.”
Transportation issues are another concern. “The U.S. is aiming to expand its fleet of cargo vessels,” Basse said. “However, building ships takes time, and Chinese vessels currently dominate global trade routes.”
New port fees on Chinese ships could also impact U.S. agriculture. “These fees could raise costs for fertilizers, chemicals, and crucial farm equipment,” Basse warned.
Basse encourages policymakers to support scientific advancements. “We must remain a science-based society,” he stated. “That approach ensures agriculture can meet global food demands.”
