Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
The decline in fed cattle prices and a lower cutout value come at a time when feedlot breakevens are increasing due to higher cost feeder cattle. The challenge with market tops is that they aren’t identified until they are in the rearview mirror. When breaking down the numbers, there is reason to believe cattle prices still have potential to reach the highs seen over the past weeks again. Last week’s Cattle on Feed report was in line with expectations. The September 1 on-feed inventory was 11.1 million head, 1% fewer than 2024. Placements in August were 10% below last year at 1.78 million head. Cattle marketed during August totaled 1.57 million, 14% below a year ago, and was the lowest total since the report began in 1996.
Live Cattle futures were higher on Monday, although the report was not the major factor influencing the move. Mexico reported the detection of New World Screwworm 70 miles from the U.S. border. The development likely means the border will remain closed to imports of Mexican feeder cattle and that will continue to limit overall beef production. All this means the tightest supplies are still likely ahead of us. The price peak will be determined more by beef demand than supply, however. Last week’s harvest estimate of 552,000 was 13,000 fewer than the previous week and 62,000 fewer than a year ago. The Choice cutout value was $15.33 lower last week, averaging $389.44. Unsurprisingly negotiated trade was slow to develop this week. Packers entered the week hoping to buy cattle at steady to lower money as their margins have slipped back into the red. Feedlot operators began the week holding on to higher asking prices.
Top Quality
Top quality steers and heifers were $2-$3 lower, bringing $220-$243/cwt. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $205-$220/cwt. High grading Holstein steers were $1-$2 lower at $192-$220/cwt, with some higher. Lower grading steers brought $168-$191/cwt. Silage fed, under finished, or heavy dairy breed steers brought $90-$167/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were $1-$3 lower, bringing $175-$230. Cows were higher. Most cows brought $125- $148/cwt with a few selling into the low $160s. Lower yielding cows brought $70-125/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $70/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were higher, selling from $700-$1,205/head. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $300-$700/head, with some higher. Beef and Beef Cross calves were from $700 to $1,775/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60.
