With harvest underway and winter approaching, Wisconsin State Climatologist Steve Vavrus shared his insights on current weather trends. He stressed concerns about the ongoing warmth and dryness, noting uncertainty in the winter forecast.
“This trend will likely persist through the weekend and into the next few weeks,” said Vavrus. He added that while challenging, these conditions could help farmers as through the harvest. “Dry weather can aid farmers during harvest, especially after the wet spring that caused mold and fungus issues.”
Looking ahead, Vavrus mentioned no clear signals for winter temperatures. “We don’t yet know if winter will be unusually warm or cold,” he explained. “But there’s a possibility of a wetter-than-normal winter, particularly around the Great Lakes.”
Vavrus also discussed the impact of long-term weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. “Last winter, a strong El Niño led to a record warm winter in the Midwest,” Vavrus said. “While El Niño brings milder winters, La Niña tends to bring cooler conditions in the Upper Midwest, though it’s less reliable for long-range forecasting.”
He highlighted the improvement in short-term weather predictions, thanks to new technology. “Forecasts up to a week ahead are much more accurate now, but we still struggle with seasonal predictions,” he said. “Artificial intelligence may help improve long-range forecasts in the future.”
As farmers plan for the rest of fall and winter, Vavrus advised them to avoid focusing too much on recent weather patterns. “It’s easy to remember last winter, but each year’s conditions can be very different,” he said.
