Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
Both fed and feeder cattle were lower last week. Some of this could be seen as seasonal. Fed cattle prices tend to work lower before the pre-holiday run-up. Feeder cattle supplies are the largest this time of year. The market fundamentals have not changed, but outside factors are adding additional volatility. Futures markets have been especially hard hit. It can be argued that several “what-ifs” are already baked into the futures. No official announcement has been made regarding opening the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports, but the market is trading as if it is expecting the ban to be lifted. Any feeder cattle entering the U.S. now wouldn’t affect fed cattle supply during the remainder of 2025 or the first quarter of next year. The November Feeder Cattle contract lost $12.88 last week but was trading higher early this week. Live cattle futures have been lower anticipating greater feeder cattle and beef imports. December Live Cattle futures were $8.53 lower on the week. Both Live and Feeder contracts were limit up Monday, but there has been little follow-through.
Packer margins have improved somewhat due to lower cash cattle prices and higher wholesale prices. The Choice beef cutout value was $376.40 last Friday with early week strength Monday and Tuesday of this week. The estimated harvest total last week was 555,000 head, 4,000 fewer than the previous week and 65,000 less than the same week last year. No breakdown regarding the number of heifers or cows harvested has been available during the federal government shutdown. A Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday, November 21. The market is anticipating an on-feed number about 2% lower than last year, and for placements to be approximately 7% lower than last October.
Top Quality
Top quality steers and heifers were lower this week, bringing $218-$230/cwt with a few to $232/cwt. Mixed Choice and Select steers and heifers ranged from $200-$218/cwt. High grading Holstein steers were steady to $1 lower at $190-$216/cwt, with some higher. Lower grading steers brought $170-$190/cwt. Silage fed, under finished, or heavy dairy breed steers brought $90-$170/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were steady to weak, bringing $179-$227. Cows were mixed. Most cows brought $115- $148/cwt with a few selling into the mid $150s. Lower yielding cows brought $60-115/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $60/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were lower, selling from $650-$1,050/head with some to $1,500. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $300-$750/head. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady from $700 to $1,650/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60. New crop lambs were mixed, selling from $225 -$234/cwt.
