Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
Negotiated trade started early this week as packers actively sought cattle for next week’s harvest — a sign that market ready supply is tight. Nearby Live Cattle futures are trading at a discount to cash but are working higher to close the gap. The Choice beef cutout averaged $365.71 last week and was over $371 this week. An internet search provides a plethora of articles attempting to tackle the question of when current prices will begin eroding beef demand. Opinions vary, but all point out that demand remains extraordinarily strong at current prices. There are signs that consumers are tightening their belts with fewer meals being eaten away from home.
Harvest numbers bounced back from the holiday-shortened week, with last week’s estimate of 582,000 head. That is 105,000 more than the previous week and 28,000 fewer than last year. Lean beef supply continues to be extremely tight due to smaller non-fed harvest. The cutter cow carcass price was $300.77 last Friday, with a 90% lean trim price of $386.14.
Lower non-fed harvest was a factor in April beef imports being greater than exports. April beef exports totaled 100,659 metric tons, 10% lower than a year ago, while value fell 8%. For January through April, beef exports were 3% below last year’s pace. Export value was just 1% lower. Beef exports to China were nearly 70% lower than last year due to expired plant registrations and tariffs. News of a framework of a trade agreement with China emerged mid-week. April beef exports equated to $396.71 per head of fed cattle harvested, 5% lower than a year ago.
Cattle Prices
High Choice and Prime beef breed steers were higher again this week. Top quality steers and heifers brought selling from $220-$244/cwt with reports of some higher. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $200-$220/cwt. Holstein steers were steady to $1 higher. High grading Holstein steers brought $190-$210/cwt. Lower grading steers brought $160-$190. Silage-fed, under-finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $90-$160/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were steady and strong, bringing $168-$220 with some as high as $230/cwt.
Cows were steady to $1-$3 higher. Most cows brought $111-$142/cwt with some to the low $150s. Lower yielding cows brought $70-$110/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $70/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were steady, selling from $600-$1,150/head with some heavier, well-managed calves selling to $1,400/head. Dairy breed heifer calves were steady, bringing $300-$900/head with a few higher. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady, selling from $700 to $1,650/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60.
