Beef Squeeze: January Tightens Margins

The following report was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.

The next quarterly DATCP Bureau of Meat and Poultry Businesses Office Hours will be held Jan. 22 from 7-8 a.m. Bureau Director Paul Humphrey will provide a bureau update. Jeff Swenson will speak about the 2026 round of Meat Processor Infrastructure Grants, and DATCP’s Grace Puc will provide a “Grant Writing 101” presentation.

Show lists are larger heading into 2026 after two holiday-shortened weeks. Packer inventories are small, but early expectations are that negotiated trade will be slow until late week. Wholesale beef prices have declined, pushing packer margins further into the red. Early auction market reports show fed cattle prices steady to higher than last week.

The Choice beef cutout value was $2.52 higher last week at $349.97. The Choice-Select spread is very narrow, averaging $4.22 last week, and within $3.05 of each other last Friday. We typically see Choice and Select prices narrow in January, although the three-year average difference for the first week of the year is $25.39.

Retailers are anticipating a pull-back on discretionary spending this month and are expected to feature ground beef more than muscle cuts.

Last week’s estimated harvest total was 474,000 head, 48,000 more than Christmas week and 31,000 fewer than last year. A case of New World Screwworm was found within 200 miles of the U.S. border on Dec. 27, likely postponing any plans to reopen the border.

Top quality steers and heifers were steady to strong this week. Most brought $220-$233/cwt, with some packages to $236/cwt. Mixed Choice and Select steers and heifers ranged from $210-220/cwt. High-grading Holstein steers were mixed at $188-$209/cwt, although some packages sold higher. Lower grading steers brought $169-$188/cwt. Silage-fed, under-finished steers brought $90-$169/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were steady to strong, bringing $182-$228.

Cows were higher. Most cows brought $120-$141/cwt, with a few selling into the low $160s. Lower-yielding cows brought $65-$119/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $65/cwt.

Dairy breed bull calves were steady, selling from $650-$1,150/head, with some higher. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $200-$600/head. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady from $700 to $1,550/head, with some higher. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60.

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