Beef Market Faces Challenges as Cash Cattle Prices Decline

Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.

Cattle

The beef complex continued its recent struggles last week with cash cattle mostly lower by week’s end. Wholesale beef prices had gained momentum, but lost ground during the past two weeks. The Choice carcass cutout value averaged $313.42 last week making it $6.08 lower. The harvest total was estimated to be 619,000 head, 4,000 more than the previous week and 4,000 fewer than the same week last year.

While export volume for beef is falling short of last year overall, export value is on the rise and September showed gains over 2023. Exports of U.S. beef totaled 103,980 metric tons in September, 5% higher year-over-year, while export value climbed 6% to $843.8 million. January-September exports increased 5% in value to $7.82 billion, despite volume falling 2% to 960,814 mt. Mexico was the leading volume market for U.S. beef exports in September, with shipments climbing 20% from a year ago. Beef export value equated to $412.52 per head of fed cattle harvested in September. September exports accounted for 13.8% of total September beef production, up from 13.4% last year.

Cattle Prices

High Choice and Prime beef breed steers were steady to $1-$2 lower, bringing $180-$187/cwt with some packages $189/cwt and up. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $165-$180/cwt.

Holstein steers were mixed. High grading steers brought $161-$170 with some higher. Lower grading steers brought $130-$160. Silage-fed, under finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $75-$130/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were lower, bringing $136-$178 with a few to $183/cwt.

Cows were lower. Most cows brought $84-$108/cwt with some to the mid $120s/cwt. Lower yielding cows brought $68-$83. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $68/cwt.

Dairy breed bull calves were steady to higher, selling from $200-$400/head with some heavier, well-managed calves selling to $850/head. Dairy breed heifer calves were higher, bringing $200-500/head with some selling higher. Beef and Beef Cross calves were higher, selling to $1,050/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $15.

Hogs

September pork exports totaled 238,047 metric tons in September, 8% higher than a year ago, while value increased 6% to $685.1 million. Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 5% above last year’s pace at 2.23 million metric tons, and 7% above 2023 at $6.36 billion.

Pork export value equated to $65.11 per head in September, 6% higher than a year ago. Exports accounted for 29.6% of total pork production in September. Cash hogs were 75 cents lower last week, with the cutout value faltering but managing to stay above $100 at an average value of $101.59. Last week’s estimated harvest was 2.605 million, 48,000 head below the prior week and 27,000 greater than last year.

Lamb

Cash lambs were steady to $10/cwt higher last week. The lamb cutout value was lower, posted at $465.61 Friday. September lamb exports dropped 32% compared to a year ago and were the lowest so far this year. Lamb exports to Mexico are on pace to be the largest since 2019, while shipments to the Bahamas are the strongest since 2011.

Voters in Colorado last week rejected a ballot ordinance that would have banned slaughterhouses within the city limits. If approved, Superior Farms in Denver, the largest lamb packing plant in the United States and the only facility in the city, would have needed to shut down by 2026. The company employs 160 people and accounts for 15-20% of the total lamb harvest in the U.S.