Beef Demand Softens Amid Rising Prices

The following meat market update was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP livestock and meat specialist. The market update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports. Edited by Mid-West Farm Report.

Cattle

Fed cattle were lower again last week, but asking prices and bids were both higher this week. The Choice beef cutout was $2.80 higher last week to average $316.05. There are signs that beef demand is declining slightly. Boxed beef sales have lagged, a concerning sign given we are in the heart of grilling season.

The cutout value stayed above the $315.00 level this week, however. Harvest totals bounced back after the holiday week with an estimate of 614,000 head, up 74,000 on the week but down 3,000 for the year. Year-to-date beef production is down 2% but fed beef production is steady with last year. Steer and heifer harvest is down 1.9%, but heavier carcasses have offset the decrease. 

Steer carcass weights have averaged 920 pounds, up 20.4 pounds this year, and heifer carcasses are averaging 843 pounds, 15.9 pounds heavier year over year. The decrease in total beef production can be attributed to sharply lower non-fed (cow and bull) harvest. Total cow harvest is 14.1% lower so far this year, with dairy cow harvest down 13.4% and beef cow harvest down 14.8% from last year.

This decrease in non-fed beef production has led to a sharp increase of lean beef imports. U.S. April beef exports totaled 111,580 metric tons, up slightly from a year ago and the highest total since June 2023. Export value increased 5% to $898.7 million, also the highest since June 2023. April beef export value equated to $416.87 per head of fed harvest, down 6% from a year ago, but the January-April average was still up 5%. Exports accounted for 14.1% of total April beef production and 11.7% for muscle cuts.

Cattle Prices

High Choice and Prime beef breed steers and heifers sold steady to strong this week at $177- $188/cwt with a few instances of packages bringing $188-$192/cwt, and some higher. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $165-$177/cwt, with mixed grading and those likely to grade Select bringing $150-$165/cwt. Holstein steers were steady to higher. High grading steers brought $160-$175/cwt with higher tops reported by many markets. Lower grading steers brought $127-$160/cwt. Silage-fed, under-finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $75-$127/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were steady, bringing $130- $176/cwt with some up to $182/cwt.

Cows were mostly $2 higher. The bulk of the cows brought $105-$129/cwt with some rising to the mid $140s/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows were bringing $105/cwt and down.

Dairy breed bull calves were steady from $200- $400/head with some heavier, well-managed calves selling up to $750. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady, selling up to $980/head with some higher. Shorn lambs brought $110-$235/cwt with some up to $250/cwt. 

Hogs

Cash hogs were 25 cents lower last week with the pork cutout averaging $100.82, a drop of $1.77. The weakness in the cutout continued into this week and has fallen below the $100 level. USDA estimated last week’s harvest at 2.422 million head, up 267,000 from the previous week and up 67,000 from the same week last year.

April exports of U.S. pork reached the highest volume and value since May 2021, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the United State Meat Export Federation. Pork exports to Mexico climbed 34% from a year ago to a record 107,594 metric tons as Mexico’s buying surged following the Easter holiday. April pork export value equated to $72.46 per head harvested, up 7% from a year ago and the third highest on record. The January-April average was $66.28, also up 7% from a year ago. Exports accounted for 33.3% of total April pork production and 28.8% for muscle cuts.

Lamb

Cash prices for market lambs were steady to $15.00/cwt higher last week. The lamb cutout value was lower, falling $4.00 to $472.16 last Friday. Last week’s estimated sheep and lamb harvest was 36,000 head, 6,000 head higher than the week prior and 3,000 higher than last year.

April exports of U.S. lamb totaled 224 metric tons, up 33% from a year ago but the lowest since December. Export value was up 21% to $1.25 million. January-April exports increased 1% from a year ago while value climbed an impressive 19%. Growth was driven primarily by the Caribbean and Mexico, but shipments also increased year-over-year to Canada, the Philippines and Taiwan.