Beans Rally After Production Report

Why did we see such a rally in the soybean markets early this week? The USDA Crop Production report, says market advisor John Heinberg of Total Farm Marketing in West Bend.

He tells Mid-West Farm Report that the latest report shows big drops in soybean acreage nationwide, and therefore forecasts tight supply come 2023. He adds the corn production report was not as dramatic, but favorable when it comes to price.

Taking a look at Wisconsin numbers specifically — soybean production is forecast at 113 million bushels, down 1 percent from 2021. The yield is forecast at 53 bushels per acre, one bushel higher than the August forecast but two bushels lower than 2021. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 2.16 million acres. An estimated 2.13 million of the acres planted will be harvested, down 90,000 acres from the previous forecast. Acreage updates were made based on a thorough review of all available data.

The forecasts in this report are based on Sept. 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time.

Meanwhile, corn production is forecast at 540 million bushels, down 1 percent from the previous year. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 183 bushels per acre, down two bushels from the Aug. 1 forecast but up three bushels from last year. Corn planted acreage is estimated at 3.95 million acres. An estimated 2.95 million of the acres planted will be harvested for grain, down 50,000 acres from the previous forecast.

Wisconsin is above the national average in terms of yield. The next crop production forecasts, based on conditions as of Oct. 1, will be released on Oct. 12.

Looking at the national numbers, corn production for grain is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from 2021. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 172.5 bushels per harvested acre, down nearly three bushels from the previous forecast and down four and a half bushels from last year.

Total planted area, at 88.6 million acres, is down 1 percent from the previous estimate and down 5 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from the previous year.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.38 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from 2021. Yields are expected to average 50.5 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast and down just under one bushel from 2021.

Total planted area, at 87.5 million acres, is down 1 percent from the previous estimate but up less than 1 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 86.6 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up less than 1 percent from 2021.