2024 Pork & Poultry Production Forecasted Lower

Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.

The May World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA last week reduced its 2024 production forecasts for pork. Production is expected to decline based on expectations for lower dressed weights for the remainder of the year.

Broiler production was adjusted downward based on lower early-year harvest, and turkey production was lowered with expectations for low returns for producers.

The report also offered the first estimates for 2025 production. Pork production is expected to exceed 2024. Broiler production is expected to increase, with tighter red meat supplies supporting growth. The USDA projects that barrow and gilt prices will be 4 percent lower than 2024.

Hog Prices

Cash hogs were steady again last week. While higher than a year ago, the market is searching for news to spur prices upward. Strong exports have been the biggest news, but they have been lower recently. Domestic demand appears to have improved, but pork continues to compete against consumers’ seeming preference for beef and poultry’s lower prices.

Last week’s estimated harvest of 2.390 million was 17,000 hogs less than the previous week and 28,000 more than the same week last year. The pork cutout value averaged $99.70 last week, making it $1.58 lower. The cutout was showing strength early this week, however. Retailers were advertising fewer processed items and focused on more loin-cut specials.